Estimating real-time predictive hydrological uncertainty

Flood early warning systems provide a potentially highly effective flood risk reduction measure. The effectiveness of early warning, however, is affected by forecasting uncertainty: the impossibility of knowing, in advance, the exact future state of hydrological systems. Early warning systems benefit from estimation of predictive uncertainties, i.e. by providing probabilistic forecasts. On 1 April 2015 Jan Verkade defended his PhD thesis «Estimating real-time predictive hydrological uncertainty». The dissertation describes research in estimating the value of probabilistic forecasts as well as in skill improvement of estimates of predictive uncertainty.


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